Building a Legitimate National Government in Iraq

On March 26, 2007, the Arab League declared "thatby the Arab League, The Organization of Islamic
the Iraqi Government should be a nationalConference (OIC), and the United Nations. The
government for all Iraqis - a real national unityvisibility offered by such a role would give the Arab
government - and respecting the will of the IraqiLeague and OIC a vested stake in Iraq's future. It
people in all its components to decide their politicalwould also undermine rejectionist arguments that the
future." On May 2, 2007, the U.S. Commission onUnited States or West imposed a solution on Iraq
International Religious Freedom put Iraq on its watchand, therefore, the new Iraqi government lacked
list for violators explaining that "the Iraqi governmentlegitimacy.
has engaged in human rights violations through itsThe conference's hosts, the United States, Iraq's
state security forces, including arbitrary arrest,neighbors, and all of the factions enjoying appreciable
prolonged detention without due process, extrajudicialsupport within Iraq (excepting only the Al Qaeda
executions, and torture" and "the Iraqi governmentterrorist organization) would participate. They would
tolerates religiously based attacks and other religiouswork out a political framework that ensures basic
freedom abuses carried out by armed Shi'a factionsprotections for all of Iraq's peoples, facilitates the
including the Jaysh al-Mehdi (Mahdi Army) and theestablishment of an inclusive interim government that
Badr Organization." In a U.S. Congress in which almostrepresents all factions, and creates a
every opportunity to find disagreement between thequasi-governmental corporation that controls Iraq's oil
Democrats and Republicans is seemingly exploitedresources and in which every Iraqi holds shares. Once
with an efficiency that would make corporate "Sixthe interim government is created, all armed groups
Sigma" programs appear wasteful in comparison, bothwould be folded into common Iraqi security and
sides have joined together to condemn the Iraqiarmed forces, a regional national guard similar to the
parliament's plans to recess this July without theirstate-based model in the U.S., or disarmed. Iraq's
having approved national reconciliation and oil-sharingformer military personnel and civil servants would
legislation. Considering that Iraq's present governmenteither return to service or receive pensions.
is a sectarian government dedicated to advancingThis economic rehabilitation/pension program would
sectarian interests, such developments in Iraq are notreintegrate a sizable number of people back into Iraqi
surprising.society and give them a meaningful stake in that
More such developments are likely in the absence ofsociety's future. For a rough estimate of possible
a legitimate national Iraqi government. Continuingcosts, if one took the highest estimate of Iraq's
absence of a legitimate national government will inhibitprewar military/reserves personnel (1.7 million
efforts to stabilize Iraq, much less put it on a pathmembers) and offered each member an income
toward sustainable self-governance. An approach thatpension equivalent to Iraq's per capita GDP ($2,000),
winds up mainly advancing Shia aspirations forthe program's costs would amount to about $3.4
dominance is not a recipe for building a stable Iraq.billion per year. In comparison, current U.S. costs in
Maintaining or tightening existing Sunni economic andIraq are running at approximately $2 billion per week
political disenfranchisement will push Iraq furtherand these former military personnel and civil servants
down the violent path of fragmentation. Continuinghave little stake in supporting a society from which
instability will create additional avenues by whichthey have been largely excluded.
outside actors, particularly Iran, Syria, and Al Qaeda,A pilot program that offers Iraqi youth financial
can stymie Iraq's evolution and threaten critical U.S.incentives to renounce extremism and abandon
regional interests.extremist groups could also be put in place. In Saudi
Considering the damage the sectarian government inArabia, such a program directed at imprisoned
Baghdad has already inflicted, the role it has played inextremist youth has proved promising. Dr. Muhammad
perpetuating and exacerbating historic sectarianAl-Najimi, a member of the counseling committee
differences, and the consequences of maintainingthat runs this program, explained, "80%-90% or even
such a government, it would serve Iraq's, the Unitedmore [of the more than 1,000 youth who have
States's, and the Middle East's interests if thatparticipated in the program to date] have given up
government were replaced by a legitimate onetheir extremist views..." Given the danger presented
comprised of all of Iraq's peoples and dedicated toby extremist groups seeking to exploit the current
serving all Iraqis. The biggest issue concerning Iraq issituation in Iraq, an investment in such a program
not whether the government headed by Nourimight well provide a firewall of sorts that minimizes
al-Maliki should go--it should--but how to bring aboutthe growth of such groups during Iraq's transitional
the legitimate national government Iraq urgentlyperiod.
needs.Iraq's existing Parliament would be asked to ratify
Although the U.S. and Iraq's neighbors cannot dissolvethe political settlement and new interim government,
Iraq's present government, they can presentso as to avoid having to build Iraq's political
incentives that would be attractive to Iraq's peoplearchitecture from scratch. Such a vote would be a
and to a sufficient number of members of parliamentmere formality, as the U.S., Iraq's neighbors, and
to cause the Maliki government to fall and invite theIraq's factions would have worked beforehand to win
formation of a new Iraqi government. Such incentivesthe commitment of a sufficient number of
would include substantial reconstruction assistance,Parliamentarians to assure the outcome.
the elimination of most of Iraq's foreign debt, aAt this time, the odds of such a pragmatic approach
financial mechanism to pay Iraq's former militaryare low. Neoconservative ideologues in Washington
personnel and civil servants (except for the senioralready hail Iraq as a "young democracy." They
most Ba'athist officials), and an opening of marketsremain almost delusional to the reality that the
to Iraq's goods contingent on the adoption of acurrent government in Baghdad is sectarian, not
political settlement that makes a national governmentnational. They remain mired in a fantasy in which they
possible and the formation of that government.believe others, not themselves, do not understand
The combination of a "regional concert" in the Middle"what's really happening in Iraq."
East (Iraq's neighbors and the United States) and anNevertheless, with each passing day, the
international conference modeled after that held inneoconservative foreign policy school is further
Bonn in December 2001 to create a transitionaldiscredited. Iraq, the very first grand neoconservative
government in Afghanistan offers perhaps the mostforeign policy project, is sliding further toward failed
viable route for achieving such an outcome. In thestate status. "This thing is really coming undone
regional concert, the parties would commit to usingquickly," Senator Chuck Hagel observed upon his
their influence to bring Iraq's factions together in thereturning from Iraq at the end of April. A Congress
aforementioned political conference, recognizing thethat is determined to bring about a better outcome
new Iraqi government that would emerge, helpingto the current situation in Iraq could bolster
curb the flow of arms and armed elements into Iraq,prospects for such an outcome by abandoning its
and providing the economic assistance and tradefruitless quest for military withdrawal timelines and
incentives that would make it possible for Iraq toinstead throwing its support behind a political
achieve robust and sustained economic growth.approach that would bring about a legitimate national
The international conference could be hosted jointlygovernment in Iraq.