| Hello Inflation, it has been awhile, I see you on your | | | | growing trees good for paper, not building grade |
| way back again. Inflation? What inflation? Oh things | | | | timber. Housing spikes caused this, many areas |
| like; Energy, diesel fuel, Aviation Fuel, Gasoline, Natural | | | | growing fast. |
| Gas, Milk, Wheat, Corn, Beef, Poultry, Hogs, Soy | | | | Oil prices up due to manipulations in supply, Middle |
| Beans, Building materials, paper, housing, Auto Prices, | | | | East issues, China coming on strong with needs of |
| Health Care, Insurance, etc. You know the basics. | | | | her own, Military needs effecting supply and demand |
| Also considering the wholesale inflation, which comes | | | | issues, International Terrorists screwing with |
| from fuel costs being passed on, government | | | | infrastructures, South American trade war paybacks, |
| regulations infringing on productivity and additional | | | | oil pipelines too few, Nimby-ism slowing output and |
| fees and fines to replace the taxes and incentives. | | | | inflows while the demand has increased, Airline fuel |
| When wholesale prices go up, those are passed onto | | | | down and therefore price has too increase to pay |
| the consumer. | | | | for the direct cost loads. Our growth and |
| How do we know all this? This is not a guess by any | | | | consumerism has outpaced our supply and |
| means. We have studied these issues for quite a | | | | infrastructures. With energy the Blackout of 2003, |
| while. Here is why we think this. Well as far as | | | | rolling CA issues, generation plants being shut down, |
| agriculture, we know from the droughts in the major | | | | slowness of building new Nuclear Power Plants, issues |
| farming regions and we can tell by the commodities | | | | in OR along the major Columbia River with Bonneville |
| market. We have seen the high temperatures and | | | | Power, issues with CA and SMUD, issues with |
| lack of water with Wheat and Corn in ID, MT, ND, | | | | upgrades needed in Coal Plants to meet EPA |
| SD, NE, KS. In other markets floods have hurt some | | | | upgrades also same problems in VA, NC, SC, and the |
| crops. Also drought hurting the growing of feed for | | | | Tennessee River Valley Authority. Pipeline break in |
| Cattle, meaning beef prices will go up. Canada MAD | | | | AZ and Phoenix they were paying nearly $2.00 per |
| COW now our Mad Cow problem, problems with | | | | gallon, but now in CA they are at $2.65 per gallon. |
| Japan's increased tariffs on beef. Hogs and Beef in | | | | Sabotage in Iraq screws up supply for worldwide |
| KS cannot get the water they need. Also in farming | | | | market. We are seeing OPEC moving forward to |
| we have seen areas where the Sierra Club is suing so | | | | keep prices high, China coming online with needs, |
| many projects to stop or slow building of new | | | | world demand is going up, takes too long to ramp up |
| reservoirs in NM, ID, CO, AZ, NV, OR, CA. Also the | | | | our own production and few companies wish too, for |
| specialty crops are running low and not enough to | | | | fear of dropping of prices too quickly, meanwhile we |
| meet demand, things like berries (see bear lake | | | | are seeing $2.46 gasoline on West Coast and $1.90 in |
| issues) and issues in Winnepeg and BC, grapes (2 | | | | San Antonio, no one expects these prices to come |
| buck chuck run supplies low), etc as well as issues | | | | down, recessions follow high fuel prices by 6 months? |
| with depleted soil in Central Valley CA, Desert | | | | So these are all issues and everything we buy has |
| Farmers along the AZ and CA border cannot use | | | | these high costs figured in. Construction, farming, |
| that amount of water since CA and AZ will need it | | | | transportation. Some school districts complaining |
| for new housing areas, golf courses and other uses | | | | about cost of buses and kids hurting budgets and at |
| (see the Colorado river situation) Farmers VS | | | | the same time increased prices mean more monies |
| Developers and housing in PHX, Tucson, Las Vegas, | | | | to state coffers which charge percentages of fuel |
| San Diego, San Bernardino, Riverside, many are | | | | prices as tax. |
| predicting a bubble burst, we have seen issues in the | | | | This article is in no way a doom and gloom showing, |
| REITs which was a little bit of a shake up. | | | | because I do see increased economic sunshine in |
| Natural Gas from the lack of new wells being drilled, | | | | many markets, but not all, those which have the |
| for instance off the coast of Maine and the Gulf. | | | | burdens of drought, fires, shortages and |
| Lack of ability to gear up in infrastructure fast | | | | manufacturing are going to see some more tough |
| enough to supply this winter's need even though it | | | | times. When energy goes up, some businesses |
| should be a relatively non-violent winter as far as that | | | | running redline on low margins with lots of |
| goes-however few Hurricanes on West Coast last | | | | competition will see harder times and layoffs in the |
| year showed us a lowered Jet Stream and lower | | | | near future, while other sectors will be continuing the |
| latitude airflows, La Nina comes next and that means | | | | recovery. |
| drought continued and water prices will go up and | | | | These companies must raise prices, nearly all airlines |
| many business which use water will be worried and | | | | have announced even additional higher fares this |
| charge more too for their services. I have also been | | | | week, 14 of the largest trucking companies; the ones |
| studying the EU droughts and heat and the issues | | | | which haul the food, building materials, cars to |
| with their exports meaning supply will not equal | | | | dealerships and everything on every shelf in America. |
| demand. Humanitarian needs are at issue as well. | | | | Railroad is increasing rates too. And Independent |
| Meanwhile the Super Crops are being blocked by EU | | | | truck drivers holding on by a thread with insurance |
| and WTO and much of those crops may not be able | | | | costs up too. We are also not going to be able to |
| to be used in all markets. Some really bad deals here | | | | release the Military reserves in such uncertain times. |
| for humanity. Fruit in FL and the everglades issues | | | | So Inflation, there she blows and meanwhile interest |
| are getting to be a bigger deal. | | | | rates will increase and money flows continue |
| Dairy Farmers in ID are up 12% but they want more | | | | offshore. |
| money and the National Dairy Association is also | | | | What is of concern is that without increased wages, |
| pushing forward. Increased demand is putting the | | | | higher percentages of consumer incomes will be |
| dairy farmers feeling that they can charge more and | | | | spent on food, gas, energy and other artificially |
| will soon need to upgrade. The fires in ID, MT are | | | | inflated or supply and demand driven goods and |
| using up much water supplies very early and fire | | | | services, yes that includes many sectors. |
| season has another 2.5 months left. Also CO, NM, | | | | Now is a very important time in our nations history |
| WY not out of the season yet. What about the | | | | and in the business cycles at hand. We will get |
| threat of Bird Flu? | | | | through this as it also hits other nations who sell to |
| With Building materials we are seeing increased | | | | us, the trick is to come out of this present period |
| government regulation, timber tariffs on imported | | | | with after burners blazing and set a course to the |
| from Canada. Paper industry is in trouble and the | | | | future prosperity and into the annals of destiny. |
| replanted forests and forest farms are usually fast | | | | Which we may write thru our human spirit and will. |