| If you look at some statistics from the U.S. Census | | | | be much more narrow and much more focused on |
| organization, the CIA Fact Book, and several other | | | | those that could actually harm us and we need to |
| credible sources and put them together in a "what-if" | | | | bank the savings and strengthen those areas that will |
| analysis regarding the future economic power of | | | | enable is to better compete economically. |
| Russia, China, India, and the United States, you can | | | | - We need to finally develop and deploy a sane |
| develop the following statistical measures: | | | | national energy program that makes us as self |
| - The current population of the United States is | | | | sufficient as possible, given that the hungrier |
| about 310 million people, the 2050 estimated | | | | economies of India and China will start to compete |
| population is expected to grow about 42% to 439 | | | | with us for raw energy sources. The less we spend |
| million, the current GDP of the United States is about | | | | on energy, as with defense, the better and stronger |
| $14.43 trillion dollars which yields a current GDP to | | | | our economy will be against the onslaught of the |
| current population ratio of about $46,561 per person | | | | growing economic powers in the world. |
| ($14.43 trillion divided by 310 million people). | | | | - We need to start getting our national debt and |
| - The current population of Russia is about 143 million | | | | government spending problem under control now. |
| people, the 2050 estimated population is expected to | | | | The more capital and investment dollars that can be |
| shrink 23% to 109 million people, the current GDP of | | | | funneled into American businesses, the better off we |
| Russia is about $1.24 trillion, yielding a GDP to | | | | can compete with China and India and the rest of |
| population ratio of about $8681. | | | | the world. If all of our available capital is going to the |
| - The current population of China is about 1.34 billion | | | | government, where it is used on wasteful, inefficient |
| people, the 2050 estimated population is expected to | | | | government programs or used to pay the interest |
| grow about 9% to 1.46 billion people, the current | | | | our national debt, the less flexible and competitive |
| GDP of China is about $4.8 billion, yielding a GDP to | | | | American businesses will be and less economic health |
| population ratio of about $3,595. | | | | our citizens will enjoy. |
| - The current population of India is about 1.2 billion | | | | Bottom line, what is needed is a long term strategic |
| people, the 2050 estimated population is expected to | | | | plan for dealing with the new world order in the areas |
| grow about 53% to 1.81 billion people, the current | | | | of national defense and economic strength. Do we |
| GDP of India is about $1.1 trillion, yielding a GDP to | | | | think that the American political class is ready for |
| population ratio of about $925. | | | | such a comprehensive analytical and strategic task? |
| Not unexpected, the United States is the richest | | | | Consider what our politicians have been working on |
| country in the world as measured by gross GDP and | | | | over the past year or so: |
| GDP per citizen. However, the growth of the United | | | | - A Congresswoman and her staff worked on |
| States economy is pretty steady and conservative | | | | legislation that would regulate the sound volume of |
| vs. countries like China and India. Let's play some | | | | television commercials. |
| games with these base numbers: | | | | - A Congressman and his staff worked on legislation |
| - Let's assume, and there is no reason to believe | | | | that would ban the airing of ED commercials on |
| otherwise, that China continues to grow very quickly | | | | television. |
| over the next forty years. If the Chinese are able to | | | | - A Congressman and his staff worked on legislation |
| get their GDP to population ratio up to half of what | | | | that would provide a tax break for pet owners who |
| the current U.S. ratio is, then the total size of the | | | | might have to give up their pets in these hard |
| Chinese economy as measured by GDP (in today's | | | | economic times. |
| dollars) would be over $34 trillion, almost two and half | | | | - The entire U.S. Congress and the entire Federal |
| times the size of the U.S. economy. | | | | financial regulatory network was completely blind |
| - Let's do the same thing with India but assume that | | | | sided by the biggest economic malaise since the |
| the ratio is so low that they can only get their ratio | | | | Great Depression, not realizing what was coming until |
| up to one quarter of what the current U.S. ratio is, | | | | it hit them in the face. |
| then the total size of the Indian economy as | | | | - Politicians in both houses of Congress worked on a |
| measured by GDP (in today's dollars) would be over | | | | bill to regulate how Division One college football |
| $21 trillion, 50% larger than the size of the U.S. | | | | teams decide a national championship. |
| economy. | | | | - The current New Mexico governor is working on |
| - We will not do the same analysis for Russia since | | | | whether or not to pardon Billy The Kid, who died |
| given how fast its population base is shrinking, its | | | | over a hundred years ago. |
| economic impact in the world economy will be less | | | | - A Georgia Congressman, at a Congressional hearing, |
| and less over time. | | | | worried in public on whether the island of Guam could |
| Thus, the upside for both the Chinese and Indian | | | | tip over in the ocean. |
| markets are very high based on the sheer number of | | | | - At least two sitting Congress people are likely to |
| citizens in each country and their governments' desire | | | | shortly face ethics charges and potential trials in the |
| to aggressively grow their economies. Before we | | | | House Of Representatives for numerous financial and |
| know it, both economies could be approaching and/or | | | | ethics offenses. |
| surpassing the size and power of the United States | | | | - Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, has publicly |
| economy. | | | | stated the insane concept that unemployment is the |
| If you do not believe these calculations, consider a | | | | best way to create jobs. |
| recent article from the Financial Times that was | | | | As you can see, we have not elected the most |
| summarized in the July 30, 2010 issue of The Week | | | | forward thinking, strategic brains in the country. They |
| magazine. According to the Financial Times, China is | | | | are so entwined in the daily political infighting and just |
| now the biggest consumer of energy, passing the | | | | absolutely trivial matters that time is slipping away |
| United States last year as reported by the | | | | while other countries are quickly growing their |
| International Energy Agency. As late as the year | | | | economies to compete with us, our companies and |
| 2000, the United States used twice the energy that | | | | our citizens. |
| China used. Now, China is using at least 4% more | | | | If long term, strategic thinkers were running this |
| than us. | | | | country, they would not be working on the above |
| Another source. In a recent feature section in | | | | trivial matters but instead would be focused on the |
| Fortune magazine, Goldman Sach's was quoted as | | | | following: |
| estimating that by the year 2050, the size of the | | | | Step 1 - start reducing the size of the Federal |
| Chinese economy will be about $70 billion while the | | | | government by 10% a year for five years to get our |
| size of the U.S. economy will be only about $40 billion | | | | national debt and spending under control and to leave |
| and just barely ahead of the Indian economy. By | | | | more capital in the private market for investment |
| 2050, Brazil, Russia, India, and China will exceed the | | | | against other economies. |
| greenhouse emissions of the rest of the developed | | | | Step 2 - find a way to finally make us more energy |
| world. | | | | self sufficient and to bring other nations into a world |
| All of these numbers point to the same conclusion: | | | | wide, trackable process that reduces carbon |
| namely that China and India will become much, much | | | | emissions equally, not allowing any economy to gain |
| stronger in the coming years and much more | | | | an economic edge at the expense of others and the |
| competitive, both for raw materials, finished | | | | environment. |
| products, and markets to sell their products. The | | | | Step 3 - develop a ground up approach to overhaul, |
| United States needs to take some long term | | | | improve, and revolutionize American public education |
| strategic actions in light of the coming tsunami of | | | | processes to prepare our kids for competition in the |
| stronger economic rivals: | | | | new economic world order. |
| - We cannot hope to compete in the future | | | | Step 4 - bring home most, if not all, of our foreign |
| economic landscape if we do not find a way to | | | | deployed forces to begin the downsizing of our |
| better educate our children for this new reality. The | | | | military budget in order to get our national debt under |
| United States consistently ranks in the bottom half | | | | control and to provide capital to grow our private |
| of worldwide student testing and education. This will | | | | sector of the U.S. economy. |
| not make for a strong economy if our workforce is | | | | Step 5 - end the Cuban embargo immediately. After |
| outsmarted by other countries that also have the | | | | fifty years, most sane people would conclude it has |
| advantage of numbers on their side. | | | | not worked and ending the embargo would open up |
| - We cannot hamstring our own economy with | | | | a new market for American businesses just ninety |
| Obama's cap and trade policy while the rest of the | | | | miles from our shores. |
| world, including the bigger and bigger energy users of | | | | Step 6 - the most important step, institute term limit |
| China and India do not agree to stringent and | | | | for all politicians. Given that none of these needed |
| trackable carbon emissions programs. If the United | | | | strategic steps have happened to make us better |
| States goes it alone in this area, our economy will | | | | able to compete in the new economic reality and |
| suffer at the hands of these economies that do not, | | | | that most of the sitting politicians have been sitting in |
| resulting in lost jobs, lost industries, and lost economic | | | | the same seats for decades while nothing happened, |
| strength since any carbon savings we incur will be | | | | we cannot assume that all of a sudden they will do |
| overwhelmed by these new economic powers. | | | | the right thing. We need to continually refresh those |
| - We cannot continue to police the world, draining our | | | | serving in Congress and the government with new |
| economy through our military budget. Better to focus | | | | people that are more fully aware of what is going on |
| on getting our own economic house in order rather | | | | in the world and are not tied to old ways of thinking |
| than deploying troops around the world to protect | | | | and spending. |
| against enemies that do not exist anymore, enemies | | | | We can succeed, we just need some visionary |
| that cannot do any direct harm to us, or enemies | | | | thinker and leaders to make it happen. India has its |
| that are better handled by other countries or the | | | | own problems, a large part of its population is still dirt |
| United Nations. We need to bring home our 54,000 or | | | | poor, possibly providing social unrest problems unless |
| so troops from Germany since the Iron Curtain no | | | | they somehow can bring more people into their |
| longer exists, we need to bring home the 90,000 or | | | | economic growth. The Chinese population will age |
| so troops from Iraq as Obama the campaigner | | | | quickly, as a result of their one child per family policy, |
| promised to do, we need to bring home our 50,000 | | | | putting strain on their economy in the coming years. |
| or so troops from Japan since Japan is not going to | | | | All is not lost. In fact, if executed right, a long term |
| hit Pearl harbor again and 50,000 troops are useless in | | | | strategic plan, as proposed above, could make the |
| the face of 2,000,000 Chinese troops in the | | | | United States even stronger since new markets |
| neighborhood, and we need to bring home our | | | | would open up in these growth economies. I guess |
| 28,000 or so troops from South Korea and let them | | | | the political class will get to this strategic plan as soon |
| handle their own security, their economy is strong | | | | as the fix that pesky college football playoff system. |
| enough to handle it. Our focus on defense needs to | | | | |